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Is 8 Wins The SEC's New Over/Under For Coaching Success?

Posted: Jul 13, 2008

An interesting debate was sparked last week when the University of Tennessee announced it had extended Coach Phillip Fulmer’s contract:

What is an acceptable win total in the SEC?

Most football coaches with any modicum of success have their contracts extended for at least four to five years at a time, mainly for the purpose of being able to ensure recruits of that the boss will be there throughout their four-year stay. So why was this extension different? The new contract for the Dean of SEC Coaches has a provision that his deal will automatically rollover each season that the Vols win at least eight games in the regular season.

It’s one of the first-if not only-times we’ve seen an athletic director “quantify” a successful year. Many in the Big Orange Nation did not like the idea of eight wins being “acceptable”, but in a league where five coaches have won the National Title, that number might not be as bad as fans think.

The rub here is that SEC fan expectations are at an all-time high. There are probably nine or ten fan bases in the league right now that think their team should win 10 games this season, if they get a couple of fortunate breaks. Fans in Tennessee were outraged that the new contract was rewarding “mediocrity”, and it became an easy source of criticism for local columnists.

I understand that all of the SEC fan bases see coaches’ salaries on the rise and consequently expect a 10-2 season every year. However, since the NCAA went to the 12-game schedule, the average is about 2 teams per season in the league win 10 regular season games. That list of two per season includes National Champions LSU (’07, ’03), Florida (’06), and the undefeated ’04 Auburn team.

It’s not physically possible for eight or nine schools to win 10-11 games a year in a conference where all the coaches are highly paid, and where NFL talent dominates each roster. Remember, even the traditional lower-rung teams are improving. Kentucky has been to 2 straight bowl games and beat national champion LSU last year. Vandy has won on the road against South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee over the last 3 seasons, and Ole Miss will not be looking for last-place finishes under SEC stalwart Houston Nutt.

An Alabama columnist said the Vols were rewarding Fulmer for not winning the SEC Title for nine years. I could not disagree more. What are they supposed to do in Knoxville – get rid of an alum who has won 145 games and a National Title? I am not saying Vols’ fans shouldn’t have high expectations, but sometimes what you have is better than firing a successful coach and ending up with Mike Shula, Ray Goff, or Brad Scott.  Continuity with the head coach leads to stability in recruiting and coaching staffs, perhaps the two most significant elements of consistent winners in college football.

Tennessee has played in the SEC Championship Game three times in the last seven seasons, and they probably lead the conference in going out and playing tough out-of-conference opponents. They have played at Miami, Notre Dame, UCLA, and Cal over the last decade and have future tilts scheduled against Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Ohio State. Those teams plus an SEC schedule is no formula for an automatic 10-win year.

The SEC schools are paying coaches more than ever, but that doesn’t mean they are entitled to a Championship every year. Here is the typical national perspective on the Fulmer deal, but what really cracked me up was the link they shared at the bottom of the blog. It was an uninformed rant from some old, retired writer who is offended by the SEC “arms race” and wants everything to go back to 1952. That’s a nice sentiment, but it’s obviously written by someone who does not understand the modern landscape of SEC football.

Coaches in this league are CEOs of major entities, and consequently, they will be paid handsomely. The reality is that while a title is probably not feasible every year, eight wins every season in the SEC is worth a lot of money.

- Patrick Snow

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